As the coronavirus pandemic drags on, choking lives and livelihoods, you will invariably hear those who will tell you to have faith because things will go back to ‘normal’ soon enough – or if not right away, inevitably. To them, you should respond: “Please define ‘normal’.” Because in truth, all indications are that things will most certainly not go back to the ‘normal’ we knew, defined here as the ‘status ante’.

We have seen the global economy impacted with gloomy fluctuations in manufacturing, supply chains, airlines, hospitality, oil, the stock market, food supply and other industries. At a granular more human level, we are seeing a profound impact on small (and large) business owners, independent contractors, and the employed.

To navigate these new realities, we need to parse each of these sweeping changes…

I draw many of observations from my experience and knowledge of working as a consultant with institutions and businesses of all sizes. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, I’ve spent countless Zoom and phone hours with government policy makers, business leaders and entrepreneurs. I’ve surveyed some of the retail complexes, and visited outlets teetering on the brink of a Covid-induced collapse.

Here are some of my learnings…

The Retail ‘Circle of Life’

We have seen small businesses shutter completely because falling revenues have meant that they could no longer continue to cover running overheads. We’re talking here not just about struggling outlets, but also about businesses that would in normal days and under normal circumstances have been considered operationally ‘profitable’. But the extended closures during Covid have made remaining in business impossible for many outlets.

In an ideal world, businesses should have been able to slow down during the lull, long enough to coast the downturn and then be able to switch back with the return of business. Some have managed to do just that, and usually by furloughing some of their staff, taking loans, and accessing government incentives. But many others have not been able to bounce back.  

Now the interesting twist is that we are beginning to see a slow but steady rebound in business, at least in some industries and in some regions, with demand growing for goods and services. This immediate need calls for businesses - whether existing or new - to pick up the slack. And here is where you can jump in to fill the supply void.

A rare opportunity lies in the number of distressed retail assets that are becoming available, and currently going for a song.  I’ve seen entrepreneurs step up to buy them and restart operations. To answer your question: yes, there is a risk, and yes, the economic rebound will take time. But what is clear is that the ‘phoenix business” will need to adopt a new way of doing business to survive and thrive in this hugely disrupted economy.

The Agile Business

We have established that there are new outlets rising out of the ashes of the collapsed businesses. But here is another interesting twist: many of these new businesses are coming into the market fast, but with rejigged business models. Speaking to many entrepreneurs looking for the right opportunity, the discussion always goes back to the perceived secret of success, and that’s keeping costs lean and operations flexible. Agility is clearly the name of the game!

The first step is to migrate to ecommerce and digital marketing platforms.  Customers have, as we have seen over the last six months or so, been pushed by Covid to adapt to online shopping. That consumer mindset and behavioral shift is upending retail and is likely to force brick and mortar to have to reinvent itself. This may involve scaling down physical space and will likely require creative integration of digital. The dramatic reduction in demand for retail space will very likely reshape urban centers and community spaces.

We are also seeing the growth of new and experimental business models. In the F&B industry, for instance, Covid has spurred an increase in ghost kitchens, supply chain integrations and cooperative service delivery models.

So my advice to those trying to break into retail, is to leverage digital technology. Specifically, be more focused, and carve your own space. Try to identify a very specific market niche, and be single-minded in honing on this target audience. Focus everything, from refining your brand identity to finessing your offerings to creating a loyal community and following.

It’s all about digital, and the earlier you jump in the better!

Working Remotely - and Thriving

I would certainly be remiss if I didn’t bring up the emergence of remote working as a tectonic gamechanger in modern, or I should say future, life. Covid has proven the viability of working from anywhere. The likely outcome is the obsolescence of the office space, which deals yet another blow to the real estate economy.

While telecommuting is not new in many countries, remote work remains uncharted territory for many others, with public and private institutions grappling to understand and manage this rapid wave of change.

Fortunately, my work with technology partners has afforded me additional insights into emerging pain points and growing trends. We have been offering solutions to manage products, processes, and people, but it has been complicated for many institutions how to process wide ranging dynamics. Even the largest public organizations are ‘trying to figure things out’. They are studying how to boost productivity while increasing staff satisfaction; how to align KPIs while integrating life-balance; offering flexibility while maintaining security.

What it means to you if you are among those who are employed, is that your contribution could possibly become ‘commoditized.’ At some point it may not matter at all where you work, but that you deliver the required output. While this offers freedom to you, the worker, it raises the possibility that you could, at some point, be interchangeable with someone else – from anywhere in the world – who can offer your same output. That person may do what you do faster, better and cheaper, and that’s precisely why you should always maintain a competitive edge.

Stay abreast of trends and be the best you can be – informed, aware and upskilled! You have to be ready for the wave upon impending wave of continuous change, and to be ready to operate in an increasingly competitive and globalized gig economy.

Actually, truth be told, it looks like eventually most us could become a contract worker of sorts! The signs have been there for a long time. At our ad agency we used to hire all our staff on a full-time basis, but we gradually moved, like many other agencies, to the outsource model. This meant we could bring in staff for projects on an as needed basis, and we even provided imbeds to clients on a pro rata basis.

This change in business model allowed us to expand our operation while controlling overheads. But for those we ‘hired’ on contract basis the new ‘normal’ offered both greater work flexibility but also far less job security.

The Bottom Line

We are going into a new phase of human existence that will change how we meet, socialize, work, consume, play and live.

While change seems to have been suddenly forced upon all of us, some of it has been predictable, especially in the need for digital adoption. It’s clear that the ones who will flourish are those of us who are most ready to change with the change. It means learning every day, staying informed, and remaining flexible.

There are exciting new opportunities ahead, and you can’t afford to stand on the sidelines. You too can be a player.